Betting NBA Overs after the All-Star Break

Making NBA basketball picks on the Totals can be a profitable strategy if bettors do their homework. There is a strategy that has some merit. It involves betting the Over after the All-Star break. This is not just some random betting strategy grasping at straws in an effort to make a profit. It can lead to wins.

The General Idea

Here’s the thinking behind why the Over makes sense in games after the All-Star break. NBA teams play approximately 54 games by the time All-Star weekend rolls around. Most of the playoff field has been determined. A few teams may be fighting for the final spots in each conference, but for the most part, the playoff field is set.

Now, back to the All-Star break. It’s essentially a week off for most of the players in the league. Only a small percentage of NBA players are involved in the All-Star weekend’s festivities. The rest are enjoying a much needed vacation. What happens when it all ends? The vacation hangover.

Players come back, especially from those teams who are essentially eliminated from the postseason, and don’t give 100 percent. When players are giving their best efforts, it shows on the defensive end. As a result, scoring is increased making the Over a more profitable bet.

Testing the Idea

To test the idea, a study examined all NBA games played in the first two days after the All-Star break going back to 2005. The study found that in a team’s first game after the break, the Over went 146-119-5 for a winning percentage of 55.1 percent. 

It’s a nice sample size, but it doesn’t tell the complete story. Making NBA betting picks on every Over after the All-Star break is not a sound strategy. 

Bad Teams

Remember, there are a number of teams after the All-Star break that, barring a miracle, have absolutely no chance of making the playoffs. These teams just don’t have much to play for, but they offer bettors an opportunity. 

At the All-Star break of the 2018-19 NBA season, there were 15 teams that had records below .500. Most of the fifteen had no realistic shot at the postseason. Examining the Over in games played by two teams with losing records yields even more interesting data.

Since 2005, when two teams with losing records meet in the first two days after the All-Star break the Over is a blistering 50-24-1 (67.6 percent). In the days following the All-Star break, betting the Over in games featuring bad teams can be profitable.

Continued Success?

If betting the Over in the days following the All-Star break is a sound strategy, what about the rest of the season? It’s a great question especially for those players looking to profit from their NBA picks. 

Currently, the team with the best Over percentage is San Antonio (61.3 percent). The Spurs record is 27-36 and they sit 12^th in the Western Conference.

Of the top 10 teams in Over percentage, eight of them – Spurs, Pistons, Hawks, Wizards, Pelicans, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, and Cavaliers – have losing records. Only Portland and New Orleans have any shot of a playoff berth as both teams are 2.5 games out of eighth place.